Directorio Campetrol 2. Damappa. Directorio Campetrol 2. Published on Jan 1. Peak oil Wikipedia. Stata 14 Version 8.0. A 1. 95. 6 world oil production distribution, showing historical data and future production, proposed by M. King Hubbert it has a peak of 1. Hubberts upper bound prediction for US crude oil production 1. Join the NASDAQ Community today and get free, instant access to portfolios, stock ratings, realtime alerts, and more Join Today. Baker Primer Oilwell Drilling Pdf' title='Baker Primer Oilwell Drilling Pdf' />Peak oil, an event based on M. King Hubberts theory, is the point in time when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum is reached, after which it is expected to enter terminal decline. Peak oil theory is based on the observed rise, peak, fall, and depletion of aggregate production rate in oil fields over time. It is often confused with oil depletion however, peak oil is the point of maximum production, while depletion refers to a period of falling reserves and supply. Some observers, such as petroleum industry experts Kenneth S. Deffeyes and Matthew Simmons, predict negative global economy implications following a post peak production decline and subsequent oil price increase because of the high dependence of most modern industrial transport, agricultural, and industrial systems on the low cost and high availability of oil. Predictions vary greatly as to what exactly these negative effects would be. Oil production forecasts on which predictions of peak oil are based are often made within a range which includes optimistic higher production and pessimistic lower production scenarios. Optimistic4 estimations of peak production forecast the global decline will begin after 2. Baker Primer Oilwell Drilling Pdf' title='Baker Primer Oilwell Drilling Pdf' />Pessimistic predictions of future oil production made after 2. Puzzle Inlay For Pc. Hubberts original prediction that US peak oil would be in about 1. Issuu is a digital publishing platform that makes it simple to publish magazines, catalogs, newspapers, books, and more online. Easily share your publications and get. Baker Primer Oilwell Drilling Pdf' title='Baker Primer Oilwell Drilling Pdf' />US average annual production peaked in 1. However, the successful application of massive hydraulic fracturing to additional tight reservoirs caused US production to rebound, challenging the inevitability of post peak decline for the US oil production. In addition, Hubberts original predictions for world peak oil production proved premature. Modeling global oil productioneditThe idea that the rate of oil production would peak and irreversibly decline is an old one. In 1. 91. 9, David White, chief geologist of the United States Geological Survey, wrote of US petroleum. In 1. 95. 3, Eugene Ayers, a researcher for Gulf Oil, projected that if US ultimate recoverable oil reserves were 1. US would peak no later than 1. If ultimate recoverable were to be as high as 2. US peak production would come no later than 1. Likewise for the world, he projected a peak somewhere between 1. Ayers made his projections without a mathematical model. He wrote But if the curve is made to look reasonable, it is quite possible to adapt mathematical expressions to it and to determine, in this way, the peak dates corresponding to various ultimate recoverable reserve numbers1. By observing past discoveries and production levels, and predicting future discovery trends, the geoscientist M. King Hubbert used statistical modelling in 1. United States oil production would peak between 1. Hubbert used a semi logistical curved model sometimes incorrectly compared to a normal distribution. He assumed the production rate of a limited resource would follow a roughly symmetrical distribution. Depending on the limits of exploitability and market pressures, the rise or decline of resource production over time might be sharper or more stable, appear more linear or curved. That model and its variants are now called Hubbert peak theory they have been used to describe and predict the peak and decline of production from regions, countries, and multinational areas. The same theory has also been applied to other limited resource production. In a 2. 00. 6 analysis of Hubbert theory, it was noted that uncertainty in real world oil production amounts and confusion in definitions increases the uncertainty in general of production predictions. By comparing the fit of various other models, it was found that Hubberts methods yielded the closest fit over all, but that none of the models were very accurate. In 1. 95. 6 Hubbert himself recommended using a family of possible production curves when predicting a production peak and decline curve. More recently, the term peak oil was popularized by Colin Campbell and Kjell Aleklett in 2. Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas ASPO. In his publications, Hubbert used the term peak production rate and peak in the rate of discoveries. Global consumption of oil 1. Energy Information AdministrationThe demand side of peak oil over time is concerned with the total quantity of oil that the global market would choose to consume at various possible market prices and how this entire listing of quantities at various prices would evolve over time. Global demand for crude oil grew an average of 1. After reaching a high of 8. In spite of this lull, worlds demanded for oil is projected to increase 2. According to projections by the International Energy Agency IEA in 2. Developments in late 2. Energy demand is distributed amongst four broad sectors transportation, residential, commercial, and industrial. In terms of oil use, transportation is the largest sector and the one that has seen the largest growth in demand in recent decades. This growth has largely come from new demand for personal use vehicles powered by internal combustion engines. This sector also has the highest consumption rates, accounting for approximately 7. United States in 2. Hirsch report. Transportation is therefore of particular interest to those seeking to mitigate the effects of peak oil. Oil consumption per capita darker colors represent more consumption, gray represents no data source see file description   0. Although demand growth is highest in the developing world,3. United States is the worlds largest consumer of petroleum. Between 1. 99. 5 and 2. US consumption grew from 1. China, by comparison, increased consumption from 3,4. The Energy Information Administration EIA stated that gasoline usage in the United States may have peaked in 2. As countries develop, industry and higher living standards drive up energy use, oil usage being a major component. Thriving economies, such as China and India, are quickly becoming large oil consumers. For example, China surpassed the United States as the worlds largest crude oil importer in 2. Oil consumption growth is expected to continue however, not at previous rates, as Chinas economic growth is predicted to decrease from the high rates of the early part of the 2. Indias oil imports are expected to more than triple from 2. PopulationeditAnother significant factor affecting petroleum demand has been human population growth. The United States Census Bureau predicts that world population in 2. Oil production per capita peaked in 1. In this regard, the decreasing population growth rate since the 1. Economic growtheditSome analysts argue that the cost of oil has a profound effect on economic growth due to its pivotal role in the extraction of resources and the processing, manufacturing, and transportation of goods. As the industrial effort to extract new unconventional oil sources increases, this has a compounding negative effect on all sectors of the economy, leading to economic stagnation or even eventual contraction. Such a scenario would result in an inability for national economies to pay high oil prices, leading to declining demand and a price collapse. Global liquids production 2.